Brightsite Transition Outlook 2024

We are facing an enormous challenge in the transformation toward sustainability, with developments moving fast, but actual greening is much slower. The climate cannot wait. In this Brightsite Transition Outlook, we discuss chemistry’s importance to society and what sustainable chemistry looks like. All this shows that large-scale sustainable chemistry is possible in the Netherlands. Brightsite calls on everyone to get involved, because together we can stay ahead.

Let’s get started!

Chapters

Chemistry is everywhere

On our way to a circular mindset

Changing the way we produce: with different feedstock and new routes

Co-creating the future by solving the puzzle

Chapter 1

Chemistry is everywhere

We might not realize it, but chemistry is all around us

We see the products of the chemical industry all around: not directly, but applied in countless consumer products.

Do you want to know, for example, what’s in a bike?

Keep our daily products, eliminate fossil carbon

The majority of products we use daily are based on chemical processes and contain carbon (C), which is such a versatile element that it cannot easily be replaced. The carbon used in manufacturing typically originates from nonrenewable fossil resources. At the end of a product’s life span, the carbon it contains can end up in the air as carbon dioxide (CO₂ ), contributing to climate change. To protect the climate, use of fossil carbon needs to be eliminated and CO₂ emissions prevented by keeping the carbon in the loop. This doesn’t mean that consumer products have to disappear—but fossil carbon needs to be replaced with renewable, non-fossil carbon.

Changing the carbon source

Phasing out fossil implies that the chemical industry will switch to non-fossil carbon sources. There are three possible sources of non-fossil carbon:

Waste-based: from society, such as carbon as a waste product from consumer products and manufacturin.
Bio-based: from biomass produced on land or at sea, including waste streams
Air-based : CO₂ from the air through direct air capture (DAC) technology

However, the amount required to replace the fossil carbon in chemical products is huge and this is why we talk about the future scarcity of renewable resources.

Not only carbon

Hydrogen and ammonia are also key intermediates in the chemical industry, which although not comprising carbon, are nevertheless currently produced from fossil carbon (natural gas, coal). To avoid CO₂ emissions, it is therefore necessary to develop alternative production routes utilizing renewable resources. Brightsite Transition Outlook is illustrated with examples of carbon-containing molecules from the petrochemical industry, like ethylene and propylene. But the messages are also valid for ammonia and ammonia-derived products.

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Do you know what carbon is?

Chemistry plays an essential role in society—we can’t do without it.

Take-away message

We don’t want, nor need, to stop using products containing carbon, which have become an essential fact of daily life. Closing down the chemical industry to eliminate CO₂ emissions is not a viable solution. Instead, we must change the present situation in pursuit of a new economy based on alternative sources of energy and carbon. This will not happen spontaneously, a mindset change in broad layers of society is required.

Chemistry plays an essential role in society—we can’t do without it.

Chapter 2

On our way to a circular mindset

Changing our consumption behavior to reduce issues of scarcity

Currently, there isn’t sufficient renewable carbon available as feedstock, and meeting the demand will require time. Meanwhile, global demand is expected to more than double by 2050 due to population growth, improving quality of life worldwide and socioeconomic conditions in developing countries. This will create a problem of scarcity, requiring a significant rethink about consumption, with a broad behavioral shift by both producers and consumers.

Circular consumption

First, we must Rethink our consumption, do we really need that product or can we share it? We can Reduce our product use by refusing some applications, such as single-use plastics. It’s better to Repair a product instead of buying a new one. And don’t throw away your pre-loved product, let it be Reused by someone else or Refurbished to give it a second life.

Circular production

Products can be designed with improved Reuse and Repair capability, and made fit for mechanical and chemical Recycling. Product waste can serve as feedstock for the chemical industry. The quality of waste is an important factor in remaking products. For particularly low-quality waste streams, where no other options are possible, it might at least be possible to Recover heat.

The 7R approach, also known as 'ladder strategies'

Only planned and successful implementation of these ladder strategies can enable circularity. Multiple parties, collective stakeholders in a particular future circular value chain, must purposefully and complementarily apply ladder strategies. The impact of the 7R approach should not be underestimated—depending on the application, the need for fresh feedstock could be halved or better.

Is biomass part of, and needed in, a circular economy?

The short answer is, yes. Biomass is circular in itself via absorption and transformation of carbon dioxide from the air. There will always be unavoidable losses in circularity and recycling, requiring alternative renewable carbon sources. That is where biomass comes in. Biomass can be used to produce the same materials in a sustainable manner. Moreover, a number of applications can be met in a much smarter way using biomass. New biopolymers can be developed, in low-energy transformations, preserving the molecular structure of the biomass.

Is carbon dioxide part of, and needed in, a circular economy?

CO₂ from the air, or produced in various processes, can also be captured and used as a carbon source. This can be done using direct air capture (DAC) or carbon capture and utilization (CCU). They have a relatively low level of technical readiness, requiring large installations and so much renewable electricity that large-scale implementation is likely still a long way in the future.

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By rethinking our consumption and production, consumer needs can be met smarter while demand for carbon resources can be reduced significantly.

Take-away message

Smarter, better-designed products and changed consumer behavior can reduce the need for new products and new materials, and will turn value chains into value circles.

By rethinking our consumption and production, consumer needs can be met smarter while demand for carbon resources can be reduced significantly.

Chapter 3

Changing the way we produce: different feedstock and new routes

The chemical industry: one link in the value chain of consumer products

The base chemical industry is situated between sources—like oil wells, forestry and waste, which provide feedstock, and the manufacturing industry that, using (polymer) intermediates, produce all sorts of materials, spare parts, and eventually the consumer products that we buy. The intermediates, plastic granules, films, resins, fibers, etc., no longer bear any resemblance to the feedstock.

What can the chemical industry do?

1) Green the existing processes by using green electricity for heating and by substituting fossil feedstock for feedstock with similar composition originating from renewable resources.

What can the chemical industry do?

1) Green the existing processes by using green electricity for heating and by substituting fossil feedstock for feedstock with similar composition originating from renewable resources.
2) Make the same intermediates from new routes, using alternative technologies that are more suitable for renewable feedstocks.

What can the chemical industry do?

1) Green the existing processes by using green electricity for heating and by substituting fossil feedstock for feedstock with similar composition originating from renewable resources.
2) Make the same intermediates from new routes, using alternative technologies that are more suitable for renewable feedstocks.
3) Develop new routes, typically from biomass, to new intermediates, making new bio-polymers to replace fossil-based applications.

There will be many good options and opportunities in the future to produce polymer intermediates from alternative carbon feedstocks, with green electricity. A lot of innovation is under way, aiming for electrification, process development and integration, and more.

What volume of renewable resources is needed?

We will answer this question with a test case, illustrating what is needed to produce 1 megaton (Mt) of polymer intermediates, a typical amount produced on a large chemical site, from renewable resources.

For this test case, we chose a combination of two possible, very-large-scale routes, each producing 50% of the 1 Mt polymer intermediates:

Electric steam cracker route, using two different renewable feedstocks: 50% derived from woody waste from forests and 50% from pyrolysis of relatively high-quality, well-sorted plastic waste;
Methanol route, with conversion of methanol to polymer intermediates via the Methanol-to-Olefin process (MtO). Additionally, methanol is produced by gasification of two different renewable feedstocks: 50% woody waste from forests and fields and 50% from the carbon-containing part of mixed municipal waste

We left ammonia production out of the test case but there are also several options for greening the hydrogen needed for production of ammonia and other chemicals. It can be produced from water via electrolysis, but also by gasification of renewable feedstock such as biomass waste, municipal waste, and waste streams from the chemical industry.

Is there a best or preferred route to polymer intermediates? Are the required volumes of renewable resources minimized?

This is an important question, given the current and expected future scarcity of alternative resources. The challenge is twofold: not just use renewable carbon and energy, but do so efficiently. Important criteria are carbon and energy efficiency, not so much for each individual step, but for the entire value chain—from the renewable carbon sources to the polymer intermediates. When comparing chemical pathways, comparisons must be transparent and made on an equal footing, so that the results are not overly framed or biased.

Some principles and examples that have been applied for generating the numbers shown in this BTO can be found below.

There is no one winning route

When these principles are applied to the two routes studied in the test case, regarding the required amounts of feedstock, total energy, and electricity performance, it appears that the differences between the MtO and e-Cracking routes are no longer significant. Both technologies have their merits and could well coexist—in separate parts of the Netherlands or the wider EU, or integrated on one site, benefitting from the advantages this can offer.

This analysis exemplifies two important future large-volume technologies. It certainly does not imply other routes are not relevant, such as smaller-scale depolymerization routes. Ultimately, regional factors, like flexibility, the existing technology base, and availability of resources and electricity, will favor one route or another. It is up to the innovators and investors to realize the most promising elements of the different routes.

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Transitioning to renewable carbon and energy is possible. But there is no single winning solution.

Take-away message

Instead, multiple options and factors favor specific local solutions, requiring different feedstock and different routes, but all will have a large impact on society. This societal impact can be understood from another question: What does this take from society?

Transitioning to renewable carbon and energy is possible. But there is no single winning solution.

Chapter 4

Co-creating the future by solving the puzzle

National resources to be further developed and tapped.

For the test case we assumed that the required renewable resources were available. Taking a closer look, we should ask: what resources are involved for sustainable production? And what does it take, from other industries, from surrounding business chains, and from society?

The figures relate to what is needed for the 1 Mt fictive plant in terms of several important societal resources. These alternative resources need to be developed into tappable biomass streams or “end-of-life-product” streams in the same manner as oil and gas have been developed in the past. This calls for building a new bridge between renewable resources and future consumption.

National resources to be further developed and tapped.

There is potential—but also competition

The combination of these resources shows ample potential to meet the above figures for a 1 Mt chemical industry. Moreover, falling back on much larger EU resources can improve this even further. Because the current supply is insufficient, this potential should therefore be realized. Keep in mind that, today, all our carbon is imported (via natural gas and naphtha). There is an opportunity for strategic autonomy. The chemical industry, however, is not the only sector interested in alternative resources. To avoid destructive competition between societal sectors, coordinated action is required.

Other types of national resources also need to be deployed and adapted.

What do we need to solve the puzzle?

The transition toward a sustainable, circular industry will take time and considerable investment. The industry needs time to transform. We cannot quit fossil from one day to the next, because we cannot afford to run out of carbon; the alternative technologies, sustainable feedstocks, infrastructure and renewable energy are just not there yet. In order to make this transition a success, a number of additional key elements are required.

We have to do it together

To create circularity, all business partners need to collaborate, creating all necessary technical links in a value circle, including the supply of renewable feedstocks. Sufficient demand among paying consumers is needed while they have the possibility of choosing ‘cheap’ fossil. Without government support, efforts will likely fail. The path to success means co-creating the future while time continues to push us forward.

Clear and long-term policies

Choices and planning ahead are the domain of policy. Coherent long-term policies supporting circularity are urgently needed. The stimulating policies should aim at fair and gradual, but determined and controlled, replacement of fossil by alternatives, and be based on energy- and carbon-efficient consumption.

An innovative industry

Circularity implies new, well-integrated plants to process the alternative waste and biomass feedstock. This is a new, innovative industry. It will create new employment in circularity, and can even become a potential export product.

Go Go Go, co-create

There are multiple possible solutions. A vision of what kind of economy we want should be led by the future efficiency of energy and carbon use. How to arrive there implies choices and tradeoffs between quick, short-term abatement, and a solid, longer-term settlement in circularity. Meanwhile, the climate and associated problems will not wait, but rather aggravate. There is no time to lose, so: go, go, go!

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No time to lose, we have to co-create the future

We transformed industry before and have learned tremendously in the meantime. Industry and society together can create a sustainable future with continued availability of plastics, economic activity, as well as strategic autonomy. We know how to accelerate developments, if we want to. So, why not do it again?

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