Chemelot, alongside the other five industrial clusters in the Netherlands, has been asked to provide data for the Integral Infrastructure Outlook 2030–2050 (II3050) about what infrastructure is required in order to achieve the climate objectives. A highly complex question that was able to be answered with satisfaction using Brightsite’s unique CIMS model. In this article, John Kerkhoven from the Kalavasta research agency explains II3050 and the challenges of modelling to predict climate-neutral energy supply in 2050.
The Integral Infrastructure Outlook 2030–2050 is being conducted by the Dutch network operators, in consultation with all sectors in Dutch society, within the framework of the National Climate Agreement and the aim of reducing emissions to zero by 2050. Research agencies Berenschot and Kalavasta are conducting scenario studies for II3050 which outline four possible future scenarios for a climate-neutral energy supply in 2050 with the different pathways to 2050, in particular the intermediate years 2030, 2035 and 2040. These studies not only consider the energy sources of gas and electricity, but also look at heat, hydrogen, green gas and CO2. The objective of II3050 is to provide a broad-based, long-term perspective for such a system with associated energy networks.
John Kerkhoven, partner and co-founder of Kalavasta:
“In the first phase, we began by developing four climate-neutral energy scenarios for the Netherlands in 2050. Each scenario differs in terms of who has the main control.”
Kalavasta is a strategy consultancy which aims to uncover and advance transitions to sustainable equilibria. It works both to mitigate climate change through contributions to the energy transition and to the upcoming transition in agricultural, food and nature systems. Clients value Kalavasta for its sharp strategic analyses, which are always supported by transparent quantitative calculation models. These calculation models are shared as much as possible and are available free of charge for anyone who is interested. In this way, the calculations can be verified and others are given the opportunity to carry out their own analyses by being able to adjust the assumptions for the calculations themselves. Want to find out more about Kalavasta? See www.kalavasta.com.
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